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The Reserve Bank recently estimated that at least three-quarters of the decline in mining-related construction work has passed.
But well-respected private economic consultancy BIS Shrapnel reckons Australia is only about halfway through the resources investment downturn.
Through a combination of good management and fortuitous timing, and arguably more of the latter, Australia narrowly dodged the full effects of the Asian financial crisis, the dot-com bust and, the mother of them all, the global financial crisis. What if, like the Irish after their Celtic Tiger boom, local excesses conspire with global factors to generate a once in a generation, or even once in a lifetime, bust?
What if Murphy's Law — that anything that can go wrong will go wrong — finally catches up with Australia?
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The risk is the auto industry shutdown adds considerably to both unemployment and underemployment, as well-paid full-time manufacturing jobs are replaced with lower paid, part-time and casual service sector work.
Over the past few years Australia has embarked on the most epic apartment building boom in the nation's history.Australia's unemployment rate is already stubbornly high at 5.7 per cent (around a percentage point above the US) and if none of those 40,000 auto-related workers found new jobs it would rise back above 6 per cent. Around 8.5 per cent of the workforce are employed but not getting as many hours as they want or need.There are now far more underemployed Australians than there were during the early-1990s recession, although unemployment was around twice as high back then.Barring permanently high and increasing levels of immigration, such a boom must inevitably come to an end when the nation has more than enough dwellings for its population.It will come to an end even more abruptly if property prices start falling, sending many developers to the wall.